Altman Z-Score

The Altman Z-score combines five balance-sheet and income ratios into one number that estimates a company's risk of bankruptcy. Below about 1.8 signals distress, above 3 a safe zone, and the range in between a grey area.

Before a company fails, its finances usually show warning signs: thin working capital, little retained profit, weak earnings and heavy debt. Edward Altman turned those signs into a single score in 1968, and it is still one of the best-known tools for spotting financial distress. This entry explains the formula, the zones and its limits.

Category
Fundamentals and Macroeconomics
Reading time
3 min
Also called
Z-score, Altman's Z-score, Z-score bankruptcy model
Updated

The Z-score in plain words

Altman's Z-score uses several balance-sheet values and income to predict the likelihood of financial distress.1

A score below 1.8 suggests distress and a high chance of bankruptcy; 3 or above suggests a safe zone; between them is a grey area.1

Its creator, NYU Stern professor Edward Altman, is an internationally known expert on corporate bankruptcy and credit risk.2

How the Z-score is calculated, step by step

  1. Working capital ÷ total assets

    × 1.2 — short-term liquidity.

  2. Retained earnings ÷ total assets

    × 1.4 — accumulated profit.

  3. EBIT ÷ total assets

    × 3.3 — operating profitability.

  4. Market value of equity ÷ total liabilities

    × 0.6 — cushion against debt.

  5. Sales ÷ total assets

    × 1.0 — asset efficiency.

  6. Add them up

    Compare with the distress and safe zones.

Worked examples

Example 1 — A healthy company

Safe zone

Ratios: WC/TA 0.20, RE/TA 0.30, EBIT/TA 0.15, MVE/TL 1.50, Sales/TA 1.10.

Example 1 — A healthy company — calculation
Weighted terms0.24 + 0.42 + 0.495 + 0.90 + 1.10
Z-score≈ 3.16

A score of 3 or more places a company in the safe zone.1

Example 2 — A distressed company

Distress zone

Ratios: WC/TA −0.05, RE/TA −0.10, EBIT/TA 0.02, MVE/TL 0.30, Sales/TA 0.80.

Example 2 — A distressed company — calculation
Weighted terms−0.06 − 0.14 + 0.066 + 0.18 + 0.80
Z-score≈ 0.85

A score below 1.8 points to financial distress and a high bankruptcy risk.1

Example 3 — Grey area

Grey area

A company scores 2.4.

Example 3 — Grey area — calculation
ZoneBetween 1.8 and 3

Scores in the grey area suggest a moderate chance of bankruptcy and call for closer analysis.1

Z-score zones

AspectScoreMeaning
DistressBelow 1.8High bankruptcy risk
Grey1.8 to 3Moderate risk
Safe3 and aboveLow risk
Applies toOriginal modelPublic manufacturers

How the Z-score is used

  • Screening stocks

    Avoiding companies at risk. See Zombie Companies.

  • Credit analysis

    Judging borrower risk. See Credit Rating.

  • Short ideas

    Spotting deteriorating balance sheets. See Short Selling.

  • Monitoring holdings

    Tracking financial health over time.

Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages

  • Combines several risk signals into one number.
  • Uses public financial statements.
  • Long, well-studied track record.

Disadvantages

  • Built for manufacturers; less suited to banks or tech.
  • Uses backward-looking accounting data.
  • Can be distorted by accounting choices.

Going deeper

Read as far as you need. Each level builds on the one before it.

Data source

Beginner

The model relies on information in a company's annual 10-K report.1 See SEC Filings: 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K.

Other versions

Intermediate

In 1983 Altman developed versions for private manufacturers and non-public companies with different weightings.1

Investor use

Advanced

Investors may consider selling stocks whose scores approach 1.8, given the higher probability of bankruptcy.1 Combine it with cash-flow analysis. See Free Cash Flow.

Common mistakes

  1. Using it on banks

    Financial firms need different models.

  2. Treating it as certain

    It estimates probability.

  3. Ignoring trends

    A falling score matters more than one reading.

  4. Using stale data

    Update after each report.

Check your understanding

Test yourself before moving on. Each answer comes with an explanation.

Q1A company scores 1.4. Which zone is it in?
Q2EBIT/TA is 0.10. What does it add to the Z-score?

Key points to remember

  1. The Z-score predicts bankruptcy risk from five ratios.
  2. Below 1.8: distress; above 3: safe.
  3. It was created by Edward Altman.
  4. It suits public manufacturing companies best.
  5. Use it with other analysis.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is the Z-score?

It has a good record for manufacturers, but no model is perfect.

Can I use it for tech companies?

With caution; asset-light firms can score oddly.

Where do I get the inputs?

From the balance sheet, income statement and market value of equity.

Further learning

Sources

This article is written in our own words. The sources below support the specific facts, rules and figures marked with a number in the text. Links open the original publisher’s page.

  1. Corporate Finance Institute. Altman's Z-Score Model (opens in a new tab) Checked .
  2. NYU Stern School of Business. Edward I. Altman (faculty biography) (opens in a new tab) Checked .

Educational content, not financial advice. Examples use hypothetical prices and simplified costs; actual fees, margin rules and regulations vary by broker, market and country. We are not affiliated with any publisher linked above. Last reviewed . Report an error or request a source credit.