Fed Dot PlotSEP
The dot plot is a chart in the Federal Reserve’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showing where each FOMC participant expects the policy rate to be at the end of coming years. It shows officials’ views, not a commitment.
The Fed dot plot is a chart in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections showing where each policymaker thinks the federal funds rate should be at the end of coming years and in the longer run. Markets read it for the likely path of rates. Each dot is one person's view, not a committee promise.
- Category
- Fundamentals and Macroeconomics
- Reading time
- 3 min
- Also called
- FOMC dot plot, Dot chart, Policy path projections
- Updated
The dot plot in plain words
Each dot is one official's view of where the middle of the fed funds target range should be, rounded to the nearest eighth of a point.1
Together the dots show where FOMC participants think the policy rate should be in each of the next few years and over the long run.2
It only comes out with some meetings — the ones marked on the Fed's calendar as having a Summary of Economic Projections.3
How to read the dot plot
Find the right meetings
Find the meetings flagged for a Summary of Economic Projections.3
Read one dot
Read each dot as one person's view of the right midpoint for the target range.1
Find the median
Count to the middle dot for each year.
Compare with markets
Set the median beside futures-implied rates.
Read the longer run
Treat the longer-run dots as each official's estimate of where rates eventually settle.4
Remember the conditions
Remember each dot reflects that official's own view of the right policy, as set out in the projections.4
Worked examples
Example 1 — Finding the median
Median 3.375%Hypothetical 19 dots for next year: the 10th-ranked dot sits at 3.375%.
| Dots | 19 |
| Median | 10th dot |
| Value | 3.375% |
Each dot is one person's view; the median summarises them, it is not a decision.1
Example 2 — Dots vs futures
Gap notedHypothetical median shows two cuts; futures price four.
| Dot plot | 2 cuts |
| Futures | 4 cuts |
| Gap | 2 cuts |
A Richmond Fed president warned that analysts overemphasize the SEP, particularly the “dot plot”, so the gap does not mean the market is wrong.5
Example 3 — Shifting dots
Hawkish shiftHypothetical dots move up 0.5 points between meetings.
| June median | 3.0% |
| September median | 3.5% |
The higher dots reflect each participant's view of appropriate monetary policy, which shifts with new data.4
Dot plot vs futures pricing
| Aspect | Dot plot | Rate futures |
|---|---|---|
| Who | FOMC participants | Market traders |
| Frequency | Four times a year | Continuous |
| Type | Individual projections | Market-implied path |
| Commitment | None | None |
Where the dot plot is used
Rate expectations
Gauge the path for the Interest Rate.
Bond trading
Shifts in dots move Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds yields.
FX and stocks
Hawkish or dovish shifts move markets after Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
Macro analysis
Compare with Inflation and growth projections.
Advantages and disadvantages
Advantages
- Shows the range of views inside the FOMC.
- Published on a fixed schedule.
- Includes a longer-run rate estimate.
Disadvantages
- Not a commitment or forecast of the committee.
- Dots are anonymous.
- Can change quickly with data.
- Markets may overreact to it.
Going deeper
Read as far as you need. Each level builds on the one before it.
Common mistakes
Treating it as a promise
Dots are views, not commitments.
Ignoring dispersion
A wide spread signals uncertainty.
Reading only the median
Look at the shape of all dots.
Expecting it every meeting
It comes with SEP meetings only.
Check your understanding
Test yourself before moving on. Each answer comes with an explanation.
Key points to remember
- The dot plot is part of the SEP.
- Each dot is one participant's rate view.
- Markets focus on the median dot.
- It is not a policy commitment.
- It appears with SEP meetings only.
Frequently asked questions
How often is it released?
Are the dots named?
Does the Fed follow the dots?
Further learning
- Federal Open Market Committee
The committee behind the dots.
- Federal Reserve
The US central bank.
- Interest Rate
What the dots project.
- Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds
Bonds that react most.
Sources
This article is written in our own words. The sources below support the specific facts, rules and figures marked with a number in the text. Links open the original publisher’s page.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Guide to the Summary of Economic Projections (opens in a new tab) Checked .
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. St. Louis Fed's New Approach to Near-Term Projections (opens in a new tab) Checked .
- Federal Reserve Board. Meeting calendars and information (FOMC) (opens in a new tab) Checked .
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 (opens in a new tab) Checked .
- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Talking About Outcomes (speech by Tom Barkin) (opens in a new tab) Checked .
Educational content, not financial advice. Examples use hypothetical prices and simplified costs; actual fees, margin rules and regulations vary by broker, market and country. We are not affiliated with any publisher linked above. Last reviewed . Report an error or request a source credit.